MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly Ignore Retails Sales Data

MBS RECAP: Bonds Mostly ignore retails sales data oct 15 2018, 5:32PM This morning’s Retail Sales report was arguably the biggest-ticket of the week in terms of economic data.

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The treasury bond pays you interest only-and at the end of the bond’s maturity, you get a lump-sum principal amount, say $1,000. But a MBS pays you interest and principal. Your cash flow from the MBS at the beginning is mostly from interest, but gradually more and more of your proceeds come from principal.

The retail sales (excluding auto) in Singapore has been declining since 2014 on an average of 0.2% per year, but the yearly decline is much faster.

Prompted by a weak retail sales data release which suggests an economic slowdown, U.S. Treasuries gained, offsetting some of the losses from yesterday. The long-end of the curve re-flattened as yields declined by 9 basis points. The 10-Year and the Long Bond closed the week at a yield of 3.23 and 4.15 percent, respectively.

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If we look solely at Retail Sales, it wasn’t abysmally low, coming in at 0.0 vs expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. But that’s certainly low enough to get bonds moving in the right direction..

Gross MBS issuance increased 20% to $115 billion, and prepayment speeds increased 24% in April (most recent data). Non-agency residential MBS spreads were flat during May, while non-agency commercial mbs 17 returned 2.1%, outperforming like-duration Treasuries by 5 bps.