MBS RECAP: Best Levels in More Than a Week Ahead of CPI
MBS RECAP: Best Levels in More Than a Week Ahead of CPI – By Matthew Graham Posted To: MBS Commentary CPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy nfp report from 2 weeks back. Reason being: NFP contained a strong wage growth component, and that always generates some fear among bond traders that higher wages will translate to.
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For US Treasuries, this brought rates to new multi-month lows. Mortgage-backed bonds, on the other hand, simply returned in line with the best levels of the week. That allowed mortgage lenders to continue offering the best rates of the week (also the best rates in more than year!). For most of 2019, rates have remained locked in a narrow range .
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Today’s headline could just as easily serve as the entire recap. traders gave it a bit more attention than normal because it raised concerns over today’s Durable Goods report. MBS managed to hold.
Oil prices had also pulled back more than 2% to near a five-month low after a report yesterday indicates U.S. crude inventories may have grown more than expected last week. Ahead of this morning’s CPI inflation report, which could conflict or reinforce the market’s conviction for a summer Fed rate cut if actuals vary from estimates, U.S.
Unfortunately, any time prior to last week, those "lowest levels" would have been the highest in more than 4 years. To make things simple , look at like this: rates didn’t move more than an eighth of a percentage point (.125) for most of March and early April (lenders typically divide rate sheet offerings in 1/8th increments).
Last week’s report was the ninth straight week that new jobless claims came in under 300,000. The reading for the four-week rolling average was 285,000 new jobless claims, which represented an increase of 6,000 new claims. What’s Ahead. This week’s number of scheduled economic reports will be more robust.
November 13, 2018 Comments Off on MBS RECAP: Best Levels in More Than a Week Ahead of CPI Posted To: MBS Commentary CPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy NFP report from 2 weeks back.